---
title: "15B-create_main_figure_captions"
output: pdf_document
---

```{r setup, include=FALSE}
knitr::opts_chunk$set(echo = TRUE, warning = FALSE)
```


```{r data, include=FALSE}
load("../data/allBG_results.RData")
load("../data/allHPBM_results.RData")
```

Replication of BG analyses using both original and new data. The left panel shows county-level analyses; the right panel shows agency-level analyses. The BG estimates correspond to their models and can be matched back to their Table 2 results. The BG results suggest a statistically significant negative impact of lagged total military aid on five out of seven crime outcomes (total crime rate, robbery, assault, larceny, and vehicle theft). However, our county-level replication results suggest a statistically significant negative impact of lagged total military aid on only two crime outcomes (robbery and burglary). Most importantly, our agency-level replication results suggest no statistically significant impact of lagged total military aid on any crime outcomes. For BG, total crime rate: $\beta$ = `r allBG$estimate[allBG$group=="BG County" & allBG$model=="Total Crime Rate"]`, P `r allBG$p.value[allBG$group=="BG County" & allBG$model=="Total Crime Rate"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allBG$low95[allBG$group=="BG County" & allBG$model=="Total Crime Rate"]`, `r allBG$up95[allBG$group=="BG County" & allBG$model=="Total Crime Rate"]`]; homicide: $\beta$ = `r allBG$estimate[allBG$group=="BG County" & allBG$model=="Homicide"]`, P `r allBG$p.value[allBG$group=="BG County" & allBG$model=="Homicide"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allBG$low95[allBG$group=="BG County" & allBG$model=="Homicide"]`, `r allBG$up95[allBG$group=="BG County" & allBG$model=="Homicide"]`]; robbery: $\beta$ = `r allBG$estimate[allBG$group=="BG County" & allBG$model=="Robbery"]`, P `r allBG$p.value[allBG$group=="BG County" & allBG$model=="Robbery"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allBG$low95[allBG$group=="BG County" & allBG$model=="Robbery"]`, `r allBG$up95[allBG$group=="BG County" & allBG$model=="Robbery"]`]; assault: $\beta$ = `r allBG$estimate[allBG$group=="BG County" & allBG$model=="Assault"]`, P `r allBG$p.value[allBG$group=="BG County" & allBG$model=="Assault"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allBG$low95[allBG$group=="BG County" & allBG$model=="Assault"]`, `r allBG$up95[allBG$group=="BG County" & allBG$model=="Assault"]`]; burglary: $\beta$ = `r allBG$estimate[allBG$group=="BG County" & allBG$model=="Burglary"]`, P `r allBG$p.value[allBG$group=="BG County" & allBG$model=="Burglary"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allBG$low95[allBG$group=="BG County" & allBG$model=="Burglary"]`, `r allBG$up95[allBG$group=="BG County" & allBG$model=="Burglary"]`]; larceny: $\beta$ = `r allBG$estimate[allBG$group=="BG County" & allBG$model=="Larceny"]`, P `r allBG$p.value[allBG$group=="BG County" & allBG$model=="Larceny"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allBG$low95[allBG$group=="BG County" & allBG$model=="Larceny"]`, `r allBG$up95[allBG$group=="BG County" & allBG$model=="Larceny"]`]; and vehicle theft: $\beta$ = `r allBG$estimate[allBG$group=="BG County" & allBG$model=="Vehicle Theft"]`, P `r allBG$p.value[allBG$group=="BG County" & allBG$model=="Vehicle Theft"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allBG$low95[allBG$group=="BG County" & allBG$model=="Vehicle Theft"]`, `r allBG$up95[allBG$group=="BG County" & allBG$model=="Vehicle Theft"]`]. For our county-level replication, total crime rate: $\beta$ = `r allBG$estimate[allBG$group=="BG County Rep" & allBG$model=="Total Crime Rate"]`, P `r allBG$p.value[allBG$group=="BG County Rep" & allBG$model=="Total Crime Rate"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allBG$low95[allBG$group=="BG County Rep" & allBG$model=="Total Crime Rate"]`, `r allBG$up95[allBG$group=="BG County Rep" & allBG$model=="Total Crime Rate"]`]; homicide: $\beta$ = `r allBG$estimate[allBG$group=="BG County Rep" & allBG$model=="Homicide"]`, P `r allBG$p.value[allBG$group=="BG County Rep" & allBG$model=="Homicide"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allBG$low95[allBG$group=="BG County Rep" & allBG$model=="Homicide"]`, `r allBG$up95[allBG$group=="BG County Rep" & allBG$model=="Homicide"]`]; robbery: $\beta$ = `r allBG$estimate[allBG$group=="BG County Rep" & allBG$model=="Robbery"]`, P `r allBG$p.value[allBG$group=="BG County Rep" & allBG$model=="Robbery"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allBG$low95[allBG$group=="BG County Rep" & allBG$model=="Robbery"]`, `r allBG$up95[allBG$group=="BG County Rep" & allBG$model=="Robbery"]`]; assault: $\beta$ = `r allBG$estimate[allBG$group=="BG County Rep" & allBG$model=="Assault"]`, P `r allBG$p.value[allBG$group=="BG County Rep" & allBG$model=="Assault"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allBG$low95[allBG$group=="BG County Rep" & allBG$model=="Assault"]`, `r allBG$up95[allBG$group=="BG County Rep" & allBG$model=="Assault"]`]; burglary: $\beta$ = `r allBG$estimate[allBG$group=="BG County Rep" & allBG$model=="Burglary"]`, P `r allBG$p.value[allBG$group=="BG County Rep" & allBG$model=="Burglary"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allBG$low95[allBG$group=="BG County Rep" & allBG$model=="Burglary"]`, `r allBG$up95[allBG$group=="BG County Rep" & allBG$model=="Burglary"]`]; larceny: $\beta$ = `r allBG$estimate[allBG$group=="BG County Rep" & allBG$model=="Larceny"]`, P `r allBG$p.value[allBG$group=="BG County Rep" & allBG$model=="Larceny"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allBG$low95[allBG$group=="BG County Rep" & allBG$model=="Larceny"]`, `r allBG$up95[allBG$group=="BG County Rep" & allBG$model=="Larceny"]`]; and vehicle theft: $\beta$ = `r allBG$estimate[allBG$group=="BG County Rep" & allBG$model=="Vehicle Theft"]`, P `r allBG$p.value[allBG$group=="BG County Rep" & allBG$model=="Vehicle Theft"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allBG$low95[allBG$group=="BG County Rep" & allBG$model=="Vehicle Theft"]`, `r allBG$up95[allBG$group=="BG County Rep" & allBG$model=="Vehicle Theft"]`]. For our agency-level replication, total crime rate: $\beta$ = `r allBG$estimate[allBG$group=="BG Agency Rep" & allBG$model=="Total Crime Rate"]`, P `r allBG$p.value[allBG$group=="BG Agency Rep" & allBG$model=="Total Crime Rate"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allBG$low95[allBG$group=="BG Agency Rep" & allBG$model=="Total Crime Rate"]`, `r allBG$up95[allBG$group=="BG Agency Rep" & allBG$model=="Total Crime Rate"]`]; homicide: $\beta$ = `r allBG$estimate[allBG$group=="BG Agency Rep" & allBG$model=="Homicide"]`, P `r allBG$p.value[allBG$group=="BG Agency Rep" & allBG$model=="Homicide"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allBG$low95[allBG$group=="BG Agency Rep" & allBG$model=="Homicide"]`, `r allBG$up95[allBG$group=="BG Agency Rep" & allBG$model=="Homicide"]`]; robbery: $\beta$ = `r allBG$estimate[allBG$group=="BG Agency Rep" & allBG$model=="Robbery"]`, P `r allBG$p.value[allBG$group=="BG Agency Rep" & allBG$model=="Robbery"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allBG$low95[allBG$group=="BG Agency Rep" & allBG$model=="Robbery"]`, `r allBG$up95[allBG$group=="BG Agency Rep" & allBG$model=="Robbery"]`]; assault: $\beta$ = `r allBG$estimate[allBG$group=="BG Agency Rep" & allBG$model=="Assault"]`, P `r allBG$p.value[allBG$group=="BG Agency Rep" & allBG$model=="Assault"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allBG$low95[allBG$group=="BG Agency Rep" & allBG$model=="Assault"]`, `r allBG$up95[allBG$group=="BG Agency Rep" & allBG$model=="Assault"]`]; burglary: $\beta$ = `r allBG$estimate[allBG$group=="BG Agency Rep" & allBG$model=="Burglary"]`, P `r allBG$p.value[allBG$group=="BG Agency Rep" & allBG$model=="Burglary"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allBG$low95[allBG$group=="BG Agency Rep" & allBG$model=="Burglary"]`, `r allBG$up95[allBG$group=="BG Agency Rep" & allBG$model=="Burglary"]`]; larceny: $\beta$ = `r allBG$estimate[allBG$group=="BG Agency Rep" & allBG$model=="Larceny"]`, P `r allBG$p.value[allBG$group=="BG Agency Rep" & allBG$model=="Larceny"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allBG$low95[allBG$group=="BG Agency Rep" & allBG$model=="Larceny"]`, `r allBG$up95[allBG$group=="BG Agency Rep" & allBG$model=="Larceny"]`]; and vehicle theft: $\beta$ = `r allBG$estimate[allBG$group=="BG Agency Rep" & allBG$model=="Vehicle Theft"]`, P `r allBG$p.value[allBG$group=="BG Agency Rep" & allBG$model=="Vehicle Theft"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allBG$low95[allBG$group=="BG Agency Rep" & allBG$model=="Vehicle Theft"]`, `r allBG$up95[allBG$group=="BG Agency Rep" & allBG$model=="Vehicle Theft"]`]. The Replication regressions are run on County data with 15,683 observations from 2010-2014 and Agency data with 45,331 observations from 2010-2015. The BG County data is from 2006-2012 and has 17,822 observations. All regression specifications control for percent in poverty, logged median household income, unemployment, logged population, share male, share Black, share aged 15-19, share aged 20-24, share aged 25-34, and agency/county and year fixed effects. We removed outliers from the agency-level database that had total crime rates of over one million.\\

Replication of HPBM analyses using both original and new data. The left panel shows county-level analyses; the right panel shows agency-level analyses. The HPBM estimates correspond to their models and can be matched back to their Table 8 results. The HPBM results suggest statistically significant negative impacts of lagged  military aid items and value on three of four crime outcomes (robbery, assault, and vehicle theft). However, our county-level replication results suggest statistically significant negative impacts of lagged military aid items and value only on robbery, and only of aid value on vehicle theft. Moreover, our agency-level replication results generally suggest no statistically significant impacts of lagged military aid items and value on any crime outcomes, except for the impact of aid value on robbery. For HPBM and aid items, homicide: $\beta$ = `r allHPBM$estimate[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Items" & allHPBM$model=="Homicide"]`, P `r allHPBM$p.value[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Items" & allHPBM$model=="Homicide"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allHPBM$low95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Items" & allHPBM$model=="Homicide"]`, `r allHPBM$up95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Items" & allHPBM$model=="Homicide"]`]; robbery: $\beta$ = `r allHPBM$estimate[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Items" & allHPBM$model=="Robbery"]`, P `r allHPBM$p.value[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Items" & allHPBM$model=="Robbery"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allHPBM$low95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Items" & allHPBM$model=="Robbery"]`, `r allHPBM$up95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Items" & allHPBM$model=="Robbery"]`]; assault: $\beta$ = `r allHPBM$estimate[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Items" & allHPBM$model=="Assault"]`, P `r allHPBM$p.value[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Items" & allHPBM$model=="Assault"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allHPBM$low95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Items" & allHPBM$model=="Assault"]`, `r allHPBM$up95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Items" & allHPBM$model=="Assault"]`]; and vehicle theft: $\beta$ = `r allHPBM$estimate[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Items" & allHPBM$model=="Vehicle Theft"]`, P `r allHPBM$p.value[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Items" & allHPBM$model=="Vehicle Theft"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allHPBM$low95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Items" & allHPBM$model=="Vehicle Theft"]`, `r allHPBM$up95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Items" & allHPBM$model=="Vehicle Theft"]`]. For HPBM and aid value, homicide: $\beta$ = `r allHPBM$estimate[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Value" & allHPBM$model=="Homicide"]`, P `r allHPBM$p.value[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Value" & allHPBM$model=="Homicide"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allHPBM$low95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Value" & allHPBM$model=="Homicide"]`, `r allHPBM$up95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Value" & allHPBM$model=="Homicide"]`]; robbery: $\beta$ = `r allHPBM$estimate[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Value" & allHPBM$model=="Robbery"]`, P `r allHPBM$p.value[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Value" & allHPBM$model=="Robbery"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allHPBM$low95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Value" & allHPBM$model=="Robbery"]`, `r allHPBM$up95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Value" & allHPBM$model=="Robbery"]`]; assault: $\beta$ = `r allHPBM$estimate[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Value" & allHPBM$model=="Assault"]`, P `r allHPBM$p.value[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Value" & allHPBM$model=="Assault"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allHPBM$low95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Value" & allHPBM$model=="Assault"]`, `r allHPBM$up95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Value" & allHPBM$model=="Assault"]`]; and vehicle theft: $\beta$ = `r allHPBM$estimate[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Value" & allHPBM$model=="Vehicle Theft"]`, P `r allHPBM$p.value[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Value" & allHPBM$model=="Vehicle Theft"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allHPBM$low95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Value" & allHPBM$model=="Vehicle Theft"]`, `r allHPBM$up95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Value" & allHPBM$model=="Vehicle Theft"]`]. For our county-level replication and aid items, homicide: $\beta$ = `r allHPBM$estimate[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Rep Items" & allHPBM$model=="Homicide"]`, P `r allHPBM$p.value[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Rep Items" & allHPBM$model=="Homicide"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allHPBM$low95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Rep Items" & allHPBM$model=="Homicide"]`, `r allHPBM$up95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Rep Items" & allHPBM$model=="Homicide"]`]; robbery: $\beta$ = `r allHPBM$estimate[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Rep Items" & allHPBM$model=="Robbery"]`, P `r allHPBM$p.value[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Rep Items" & allHPBM$model=="Robbery"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allHPBM$low95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Rep Items" & allHPBM$model=="Robbery"]`, `r allHPBM$up95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Rep Items" & allHPBM$model=="Robbery"]`]; assault: $\beta$ = `r allHPBM$estimate[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Rep Items" & allHPBM$model=="Assault"]`, P `r allHPBM$p.value[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Rep Items" & allHPBM$model=="Assault"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allHPBM$low95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Rep Items" & allHPBM$model=="Assault"]`, `r allHPBM$up95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Rep Items" & allHPBM$model=="Assault"]`]; and vehicle theft: $\beta$ = `r allHPBM$estimate[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Rep Items" & allHPBM$model=="Vehicle Theft"]`, P `r allHPBM$p.value[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Rep Items" & allHPBM$model=="Vehicle Theft"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allHPBM$low95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Rep Items" & allHPBM$model=="Vehicle Theft"]`, `r allHPBM$up95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Rep Items" & allHPBM$model=="Vehicle Theft"]`]. For our county-level replication and aid value, homicide: $\beta$ = `r allHPBM$estimate[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Rep Value" & allHPBM$model=="Homicide"]`, P `r allHPBM$p.value[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Rep Value" & allHPBM$model=="Homicide"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allHPBM$low95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Rep Value" & allHPBM$model=="Homicide"]`, `r allHPBM$up95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Rep Value" & allHPBM$model=="Homicide"]`]; robbery: $\beta$ = `r allHPBM$estimate[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Rep Value" & allHPBM$model=="Robbery"]`, P `r allHPBM$p.value[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Rep Value" & allHPBM$model=="Robbery"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allHPBM$low95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Rep Value" & allHPBM$model=="Robbery"]`, `r allHPBM$up95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Rep Value" & allHPBM$model=="Robbery"]`]; assault: $\beta$ = `r allHPBM$estimate[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Rep Value" & allHPBM$model=="Assault"]`, P `r allHPBM$p.value[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Rep Value" & allHPBM$model=="Assault"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allHPBM$low95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Rep Value" & allHPBM$model=="Assault"]`, `r allHPBM$up95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Rep Value" & allHPBM$model=="Assault"]`]; and vehicle theft: $\beta$ = `r allHPBM$estimate[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Rep Value" & allHPBM$model=="Vehicle Theft"]`, P `r allHPBM$p.value[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Rep Value" & allHPBM$model=="Vehicle Theft"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allHPBM$low95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Rep Value" & allHPBM$model=="Vehicle Theft"]`, `r allHPBM$up95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM County Rep Value" & allHPBM$model=="Vehicle Theft"]`]. For our agency-level replication and aid items, homicide: $\beta$ = `r allHPBM$estimate[allHPBM$group=="HPBM Agency Rep Items" & allHPBM$model=="Homicide"]`, P `r allHPBM$p.value[allHPBM$group=="HPBM Agency Rep Items" & allHPBM$model=="Homicide"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allHPBM$low95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM Agency Rep Items" & allHPBM$model=="Homicide"]`, `r allHPBM$up95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM Agency Rep Items" & allHPBM$model=="Homicide"]`]; robbery: $\beta$ = `r allHPBM$estimate[allHPBM$group=="HPBM Agency Rep Items" & allHPBM$model=="Robbery"]`, P `r allHPBM$p.value[allHPBM$group=="HPBM Agency Rep Items" & allHPBM$model=="Robbery"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allHPBM$low95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM Agency Rep Items" & allHPBM$model=="Robbery"]`, `r allHPBM$up95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM Agency Rep Items" & allHPBM$model=="Robbery"]`]; assault: $\beta$ = `r allHPBM$estimate[allHPBM$group=="HPBM Agency Rep Items" & allHPBM$model=="Assault"]`, P `r allHPBM$p.value[allHPBM$group=="HPBM Agency Rep Items" & allHPBM$model=="Assault"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allHPBM$low95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM Agency Rep Items" & allHPBM$model=="Assault"]`, `r allHPBM$up95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM Agency Rep Items" & allHPBM$model=="Assault"]`]; and vehicle theft: $\beta$ = `r allHPBM$estimate[allHPBM$group=="HPBM Agency Rep Items" & allHPBM$model=="Vehicle Theft"]`, P `r allHPBM$p.value[allHPBM$group=="HPBM Agency Rep Items" & allHPBM$model=="Vehicle Theft"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allHPBM$low95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM Agency Rep Items" & allHPBM$model=="Vehicle Theft"]`, `r allHPBM$up95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM Agency Rep Items" & allHPBM$model=="Vehicle Theft"]`]. For our agency-level replication and aid value, homicide: $\beta$ = `r allHPBM$estimate[allHPBM$group=="HPBM Agency Rep Value" & allHPBM$model=="Homicide"]`, P `r allHPBM$p.value[allHPBM$group=="HPBM Agency Rep Value" & allHPBM$model=="Homicide"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allHPBM$low95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM Agency Rep Value" & allHPBM$model=="Homicide"]`, `r allHPBM$up95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM Agency Rep Value" & allHPBM$model=="Homicide"]`]; robbery: $\beta$ = `r allHPBM$estimate[allHPBM$group=="HPBM Agency Rep Value" & allHPBM$model=="Robbery"]`, P `r allHPBM$p.value[allHPBM$group=="HPBM Agency Rep Value" & allHPBM$model=="Robbery"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allHPBM$low95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM Agency Rep Value" & allHPBM$model=="Robbery"]`, `r allHPBM$up95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM Agency Rep Value" & allHPBM$model=="Robbery"]`]; assault: $\beta$ = `r allHPBM$estimate[allHPBM$group=="HPBM Agency Rep Value" & allHPBM$model=="Assault"]`, P `r allHPBM$p.value[allHPBM$group=="HPBM Agency Rep Value" & allHPBM$model=="Assault"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allHPBM$low95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM Agency Rep Value" & allHPBM$model=="Assault"]`, `r allHPBM$up95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM Agency Rep Value" & allHPBM$model=="Assault"]`]; and vehicle theft: $\beta$ = `r allHPBM$estimate[allHPBM$group=="HPBM Agency Rep Value" & allHPBM$model=="Vehicle Theft"]`, P `r allHPBM$p.value[allHPBM$group=="HPBM Agency Rep Value" & allHPBM$model=="Vehicle Theft"]`, and 95\% CI = [`r allHPBM$low95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM Agency Rep Value" & allHPBM$model=="Vehicle Theft"]`, `r allHPBM$up95[allHPBM$group=="HPBM Agency Rep Value" & allHPBM$model=="Vehicle Theft"]`]. The Replication regressions are run on County data with 15,460 observations from 2010-2014 and Agency data with 45,055 observations from 2010-2015. The HPBM County data is from 2000-2013 and has 36,671 observations. All regression specifications control for lagged arrest rates, economic controls, and agency/county and year fixed effects. We removed outliers from the agency-level database that had total crime rates of over one million.

